DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
INDIAN INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE
Ph.D. Thesis Colloquium
Mr. Abhishek Das
(Research Supervisors: Dr. P. Balachandra & Dr. Shashi Jain)
Title: “Modelling Social and Economic impacts of Zero-carbon Transition of Indian Electricity System on Coal-thermal Value-chain: Identification, Quantification and Integration”
Venue: Meeting Room (Room No: 105), DOMS
Date and Time: Monday, 24th November 2025 at 3.00 PM
ABSTRACT
Climate change poses the gravest threat to humanity and demands urgent flattening of the steep upward trajectory of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. Electricity generation, dominated by coal, contributes the largest share of global CO2 emissions and therefore, must be addressed on topmost priority. On the other hand, coal-based thermal power value-chain comprising coal mining, coal transport and power generation is a major means of sustenance, source of employment and pillar of social security, for the coal rich nations. Thus, making a shift to renewable energy (RE) is simultaneously, an environmental necessity and a socio-economic challenge. For India, the world’s third-largest coal producer and consumer, this transition is both essential and complex, carrying major implications for jobs, regional economies, and fiscal stability. The central question addressed in this thesis is how India can achieve deep decarbonisation of its electricity system while maintaining social and economic balance.
To explore this, a new indigenous electricity system transition model was developed that minimises total system economic costs while adhering to technical, resource, and emission constraints. The model was validated for Karnataka for the base year of 2019 and then scaled up nationally across five geo-electrical zones to project the zero-carbon electricity system transition pathways to 2050. In parallel, a novel framework was designed to identify, classify and quantify the social and economic impacts of RE transition along the coal-thermal value chain. Two measurable impact categories were defined for this purpose: capital stranding per MW of prematurely retired thermal generating capacity and operational stranding per kWh of avoided or substituted thermal generation. These values represent the real socio-economic costs of decarbonisation borne by the economy, society and workforce. The model integrated these costs to simulate four scenarios across two dimensions: inclusion or exclusion of social and economic costs (SOC vs. NOSOC); and aggressive or current (status quo) thermal retirement pace (AGG vs. STQ). Using 2019 as the base year, all the scenarios are designed to achieve zero coal power generation by 2050, but their impacts differed significantly. While SOC_STQ emerged as the most balanced scenario combining affordable system costs, steady emissions reduction, and manageable socio-economic disruption, NOSOC_AGG proved least desirable, rapidly decommissioning thermal generating units without considering their social and economic implications.
The study concludes that India’s transition to a 100% RE electricity system is technically feasible, and would also be economically viable and socially acceptable, if sequenced with robust foresight and strategic planning. Integrating social and economic cost metrics into electricity system transition modelling would reveal the real cost of transition and thereby, an informed policy design can mitigate the socio-economic adversities through initiatives like retraining programmes, fiscal compensation, industrial diversification, and regional coordination, ensuring that climate ambition proceeds without undermining livelihoods. The findings offer a replicable framework for other coal-dependent economies, reinforcing a simple fact that the transition to clean energy will succeed not when it is fastest, but when it is fairest.
ALL ARE WELCOME