DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
INDIAN INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE
FRIDAY SEMINAR
Speaker:
Prof V. Ravi Anshuman
IIM Bangalore
Date: 31st October 2025 [Friday]
Time: 12:00 noon
(High tea will be served at 11:30 AM)
Hybrid Seminar:
Venue: SEMINAR HALL [Management Studies]
Microsoft Teams Link:
https://shorturl.at/rUliq
Join the meeting now
Meeting ID: 411 998 834 390 2
Passcode: Yj2rS2Cb
Title: ” Predicting Equity Risk Premium: Conditioning Forecasts on Economic Uncertainty”
Abstract:
Recent research finds that traditional predictors rarely outperform the historical average in forecasting the equity risk premium. This study introduces an uncertainty-based approach that optimally combines predictors across normal and high uncertainty periods. The earnings-price ratio predicts best in stable times, while inflation leads during high uncertainty—together improving forecast accuracy and trading performance, with utility gains of about 4% and a haircut Sharpe ratio of 0.41.
Brief Bio:
Professor V. Ravi Anshuman’s research focuses on Market Microstructure, Capital Markets, and Corporate Financial Management in Emerging Markets. His work has appeared in leading journals, including the Review of Financial Studies and the Journal of Financial Economics. He has consulted for several blue- chip companies and serves on the CFTC and F&O Executive Committees of the NSE.
ALL ARE WELCOME