Titan 1998: Static Population Demographical Study

The personnel department of Titan in its Hosur plant was interested in the forecasts of the number of children that would be born to their employees in the coming 10-12 years, as a part of a feasibility study of starting a school for their employees' children. The human resource database provided some relevant direct information like the the employees' age, gender, marital status, date of marriage, number of children and their date of births. The marriage and child-birth patterns were first extracted from these records of the married employees to estimate the probabilities of marriages at different ages, and the probabilities of child-births at a given number of years of marriage with a given a baby-status, after controlling for gender. These probabilities were then used in a C program to simulate child-births, and marriages and subsequent child-births longitudinally over the forecast horizon for the appropriate group of employees to arrive at the forecast figures. The forecasted figures had turned out to be quite accurate for the first few years after which there is no more contact with the clients.